No transit without Baku: New logic for regional transport integration

The International Forum held in Ashgabat to mark the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistanchr("39")s neutrality has become a clear indicator of an important shift in the regional agenda: the space between Central Asia and the Caspian Sea is decisively moving from declarations of stability to the practical implementation of infrastructure and energy projects. A significant role in shaping this new logic is played by the consistent policy of President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, focused on developing transport, energy, and logistical connectivity. As a result, the region is rapidly becoming a hotbed of practical solutions, where the name of the game is no longer good intentions but the knack for ensuring smooth transit, energy security, and sustainable pathways.

This approach is also evident in the strategic dialogue between Russia and Türkiye on the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, in the deepening gas cooperation between Iran and Turkmenistan, and in the plans of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to expand their transit potential. All these initiatives share a common vector: the pursuit of energy independence and the formation of sustainable transport corridors amid the fragmentation of traditional trade routes.

Against this backdrop, it becomes clear that without Azerbaijan, these projects canchr("39")t get off the ground. The countrychr("39")s geographical position and the infrastructure already in place have turned Baku from a participant into a central distribution hub. Leaving Azerbaijan out of transit and energy plans will either make them economically inefficient or deprive them of strategic meaning, especially given the countrychr("39")s critical importance for cargo transit between Central Asia, Türkiye and Europe.

Today, two major corridors serve as the backbone of regional integration: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). It is precisely at their intersection that Azerbaijanchr("39")s role becomes system-forming. In the context of the erosion of international law and disruptions in global supply chains - issues explicitly raised at the Ashgabat forum - the presence of a reliable and politically stable transit hub is of decisive importance.

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, actively promoted by Bishkek, aims to create a new major cargo flow from China to Europe. According to estimates, its volume could increase from the current 3-4 million tons to 15 million tons per year. Kazakhstan, in turn, views the Middle Corridor as a core logistics route and plans to raise its capacity to 10 million tons by 2027.

However, it is Azerbaijan - with the Port of Baku (Alat) on the Caspian Sea - that remains the only effective transit link ensuring the onward movement of these goods through the Caucasus toward Türkiye and Europe, bypassing Russian territory. Actual cargo turnover along the Middle Corridor through Azerbaijanchr("39")s ports has already grown by more than 80 percent over the past two years, confirming its critical role. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the developed logistics network form the key backbone of the route. This powerful transit infrastructure is the direct result of the targeted initiatives of President Ilham Aliyev aimed at transforming the country into a regional logistics hub. Without Azerbaijanchr("39")s transshipment capacities, the Middle Corridor becomes a fragmented route, while the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan project loses its significance as a European-bound direction.

At the same time, the North-South corridor continues to develop. Although Iran and Turkmenistan emphasize the eastern route, the western branch - Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran - remains the most established and economically efficient. It ensures the delivery of goods from Russia and Northern Europe to Iran and further to India. From January through October of the current year, trade turnover between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran amounted to $518.2 million, confirming the growing importance of this route. So, Azerbaijan is not just dipping its toes in the INSTC waters; itchr("39")s also keeping the ship afloat while walking a tightrope between the east and west.

Azerbaijanchr("39")s significance is not limited to logistics. The country acts as an independent guarantor of energy stability in the South Caucasus and in Türkiye. As a key gas supplier within the Southern Gas Corridor, Baku ensures diversification of supplies to Türkiye and Southern Europe. Currently, Azerbaijan supplies around 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe, while the total capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor stands at 31 billion cubic meters, with plans for further expansion.

With the strategic dance between Ankara and Moscow heating up in the nuclear arena thanks to the Akkuyu NPP project, Azerbaijan stands as a key player, keeping the energy scales balanced and stability flowing from the south. Azerbaijan is one of Türkiyechr("39")s largest gas suppliers, alongside Russia and Iran, while supplies via the TANAP pipeline reduce Ankarachr("39")s dependence on a single source. This is particularly important amid deepening Russian-Turkish cooperation in nuclear energy, where long-term technological and fuel commitments strengthen Moscowchr("39")s position. In this context, stable supplies of Azerbaijani gas serve as a counterbalance, providing Türkiye with the necessary room for maneuver in its energy policy.

An additional dimension is added by the green energy agenda. In the context of climate and water challenges actively raised by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan is promoting a project to export Caspian wind and solar energy to Europe via Georgia and an underwater cable to Romania. In December 2022, a Strategic Partnership Agreement on the development and transmission of green energy was signed in Bucharest between the governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, and Hungary, creating the political and legal framework for the construction of a 1,000 MW submarine cable more than 1,100 km long. As a result, the Caspian region is gradually being integrated into the European energy market.

Special attention should also be paid to the environmental factor - the shrinking of the Caspian Sea - which is already directly affecting port infrastructure along the eastern coast. Against the backdrop of falling water levels and rising costs, Azerbaijanchr("39")s ports are becoming a key element in ensuring reliable transshipment along the Middle Corridor. In practice, the effectiveness of Central Asiachr("39")s investments in transport projects directly depends on the stable operation of Azerbaijanchr("39")s maritime and land-based capacities.

Taken together, all these factors lead to a clear conclusion: Azerbaijan today is not just one of many elements but the geographical, infrastructural, and political key to the entire regional connectivity architecture. It is precisely the consistent and long-term strategy of President Ilham Aliyev to develop transport corridors, modernize port and railway infrastructure, and strengthen energy routes that has transformed the country into a system-forming transit hub. Without this targeted policy, neither logistics nor energy projects in the region could achieve their stated goals. For Central Asian countries, this means that they need to hit the ground running to gain fast, competitive, and secure access to the markets of Europe and the Middle East, which is today effectively ensured through Azerbaijan, which under President Ilham Aliyev has become the only reliable bridge between East and West, North and South.